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After the rapid destocking, can the market of straight-spun polyester staple fiber be maintained?
Date:[2019/6/21]    Clicks:[119]
    

Since the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the process of de-stocking of the direct-spinning polyester staple fiber enterprises has accelerated, and some enterprises have even experienced a tight supply situation. At the same time, the raw material market still has a large number of variables. The PTA equipment maintenance and restart coexist, and the industry has poor processing of PTA. It is also deeply doubtful whether it will continue to maintain a strong trend in the still high background. The author believes that, unlike the previous market, this time, the short-selling enterprises have a relatively smooth inventory, and the stable market may last longer than before.

During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, oil prices rebounded, and PX also rose sharply under the tight support of short-term supply. At the same time, trade relations also eased. Some players believe that the unilateral decline in the market has lasted for two months and is on the verge of Under the loss, the price of polyester varieties has fallen, and some buyers have begun to stock up. The polyester factories are also declining. The polyester filament products are the first to bear the brunt. The polyester staple fiber market buyers are also concentrated on holidays and this Monday. Shipment, in just two days, the production and sales rate of some factories is as high as 1000%. The process of destocking in the industry is very smooth, and some enterprises even start to supply tightly. In this context, the production enterprises gradually increase the price. However, since most buyers have already stocked up, the market has been overdrawn. The increase in the supply of goods has been very limited. The industry has not only begun to doubt whether this market can only last for three days as in late May.

However, unlike the last market, the inventory level of polyester staple fiber enterprises in the second half of May is generally around half a month, and the pressure is relatively high, while the downstream yarn enterprises have high inventory of their own finished products, and some enterprises have more work stoppages; Although there is still no significant boost, the factory's destocking process is relatively fast, and the loss situation is still not reversed. Therefore, although the market price is unlikely to rise significantly, it is difficult to re-enter the decline in the short term.

Moreover, from the raw material side, the PTA equipment has recently restarted and overhauled, especially the press plan of Hengli's 2.2 million tons of PTA equipment planned to be overhauled for 15 days and Yisheng's 2.2 million tons of equipment was reduced to half of the operation. Formed a certain support; and the polyester factory's destocking process is relatively smooth, some of the original planned maintenance operations have been postponed, and with the previous maintenance or production reduction equipment restarted, the polyester industry comprehensive operating rate is relatively high, and July There are still new facilities for Tongkun and Xinfengming, which are expected to be put into production. Therefore, the steady increase in demand for polyester will form a certain support for the PTA and MEG markets.

For the polyester staple fiber itself, although the negative sentiment from the demand side is more, the profitability of the production enterprise itself is low or even loss. In the context of low stocks, the market price has fallen, so the fluctuation of the cost side in the short term. Will become the key to the changes in market conditions. However, the recent external news or bias is still turbulent, there are still many uncertainties in the market. Geopolitics and OPEC production cuts will have a big impact on oil prices, and the outcome of trade negotiations and the convening of the G20 summit have also increased the uncertainty of market volatility. But on the whole, in the context of short-term cost increases and low inventory, the relatively stable market for polyester staple fiber market may last longer.

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